How We Predict NHL Shots
Transparent methodology. No black boxes. Here's exactly how our model works and why it beats the market.
The Short Version
We use machine learning to predict whether NHL players will go over or under on their shots prop. We compare our predictions to sportsbook lines and recommend bets where we see positive expected value.
Our proprietary model analyzes comprehensive player and game data to identify edges the market misses.
Data Sources
All NHL Data
We ingest every available NHL statistic: shots, goals, assists, time on ice, hits, blocks, power play data, advanced metrics, and more. Updated daily with comprehensive historical coverage.
Live Shot Data
Real-time shot tracking and live game data allows our model to capture the most current player form and situational context for accurate over/under predictions.
Historical Performance
Years of backtested predictions against real market prices, allowing us to validate our edge and continuously improve model accuracy.
Our Approach
Raw data isn't enough. Our proprietary feature engineering captures the nuances of what actually drives shot volume—things the books don't fully price in.
Player Analysis
We analyze each player's recent form, tendencies, and historical patterns to understand their true shot volume baseline.
Matchup Context
Every game is different. We factor in opponent strength, game situation, and contextual variables that impact shots.
Cutting-Edge Machine Learning
Daily Retraining
Our model retrains daily on the latest data. No stale predictions. Yesterday's game is already factored into today's picks.
Proprietary Algorithms
We've developed custom machine learning approaches specifically optimized for NHL shot prediction. Years of research and iteration have gone into our model.
Calibrated Confidence
When we say 80% confidence, we mean it. Our confidence scores are carefully calibrated so you can size your bets appropriately.
Performance Metrics
We track multiple metrics to validate long-term profitability:
Win Rate
vs ~56% needed to profit at -110 odds
ROI
2024-25 season to date
CLV Average
Consistently beating closing lines
Picks/Day
Quality over quantity
Why Shots? Why NHL?
Shots are predictable. Unlike goals (high variance) or assists (dependent on teammates), shots reflect individual tendencies. Players who shoot a lot... continue shooting a lot.
Market inefficiency. NHL player props receive less attention than NFL/NBA, meaning sportsbook lines are less sharp. Our model captures edges that get arbitraged away in higher-volume markets.
Rich context data. We leverage all available NHL data and live shot tracking that sportsbooks don't fully incorporate into player prop lines.
See it in action
Get today's picks with full model explanations. Free to start.